成功俱乐部

刊首语

一样的月光

----本期编辑吴丽雯发自洛杉矶

如果不是电子邮箱里一下子收到好几封朋友的邮件，我还不知道，今天是中秋节。

记得小时候，当大学老师的父母那点工资养我和弟弟两个小孩，家里并不富裕，每当中秋，父母都尽可能的给我们两个小孩买上一盒月饼，而我也总是先让爱吃甜食的弟弟品尝，父母也为我们这麽友好的姐弟感情而欣慰。那时我记得全家人都笑眯眯的看着弟弟吃，谁也不去和他抢。而今生活条件好了，我却不能亲手给父母送上一盒月饼，想想真是心里头隐隐的痛。

住在国外时间长了，异国他乡没有中国的佳节气氛，有时一忙，就把节日给忘了。而今天，守着窗外这轮明月，想着小时候一家四口在一起的趣事，不竟感慨万千。我父母也来美国好几次了，他们就是呆不住，经常挂在嘴边的一句话就是：金窝银窝，比不上自己的狗窝。

而今，望着和故乡一样的月光，一样的照着千家万户，一样的心情，一样的思念着故乡的云，一样的笑容，一样的牵挂，一样的梦想和不一样的土地，不一样的人情。

总觉得生活在别人的城市，总觉得生活在别人的土地。我也不知道为什么不能在内心深处不能把自己融入这片土地。虽然我在这里生活了十年，我在这片土地哭过笑过，成功过，也失败过，从忍受和别人分租房间到现在自己家独居山头，从一个开着二手车抛锚后在路上哭泣等待警察援助的留学生到现在成了一个洛杉矶的老移民...想想都觉得好笑，年轻的时光就这样的给折腾过去了，还剩下什么呢？

归根结底，是因为人不可能有两次生命,一样不可能有两个故乡。就像谭健飞在他的新书《华尔街的激情岁月》里写的那样：“我有一种渴望，渴望回到中国，回到故乡。因为那里有和我一样追求梦想而永不放弃的中国人，我要将我的本事全都教给他们，让他们少走弯路，走向成功，去赚美国人的钱...”

故乡是给我们生命的地方，我多希望有一天，我会回到故乡，重温小时候的梦想，和家人重拾童年趣事，谈我漂泊的岁月，谈我奋斗的历程，也能看到窗前，这一轮一样的月光。

[本期成功周刊为方便英语学习爱好者，我们采用了中、英文对照的格式]

本期赠言

很多人都有思想，但是很少有人将这些想法付诸于行动。不是明天。不是下个星期。只是从今天开始。一个真正的企业家是一个实干家，而不是一个梦想家。

——诺兰.布什内尔，Atari电脑的创始人

"A lot of people have ideas, but there are few who decide to do something about them now. Not tomorrow. Not next week. But today. The true entrepreneur is a doer, not a dreamer."

——Nolan Bushnell, Founder of Atari Computer

本期文章

当房地产的气泡破裂的时候，你会受到保护吗？

热衷于房地产投资。这是一项工作量相当大的工作，但是我喜欢这项工作的每一个细节。我很幸运，房产在一年之内有好几次提高了三个百分点——这些都是融资增值，净租金以及分期偿还的结果。至于其他资产，我希望每年至少有15%~20%的综合收益，每4~5年可增长一倍。

我实在想不出还有哪种工作会承担如此小的风险却拥有如此大的收益。但如今，作为一个房地产投资者，你必须格外谨慎。虽然房地产过去最多是创下每12年翻一翻的奇迹，可是现在很多地区的房地产价格3~5年里就上升了一个百分点。那就意味着你可以在附近银根松增值之后购买——如果你刚好遇到价格膨胀，就会损失惨重。
这就是为什么如果要成为一个有所收益却又可以避免风险的房地产投资者，在资产实际价值的评估方面有所专攻是极为重要的。

可是即使你所做的一切都是正确的，仍然无解释一直以来很多人提出的疑问，“我们是否处在一个即将爆破的房地产气泡里呢？”

很多关于投资时机的掌握方面的最好的建议，我都是从“财富”的主编，同时也是牛津大学投资专题讨论者俱乐部成员之一，史蒂夫.苏格路德那里学到的（“财富”是一本非常不错的关于投资方面的杂志）。几星期前，他发表了一篇文章，里面写到了关于他最近引用耶鲁大学经济学家和投资专家欧文.费西尔的一席话时提到的想法：“价格已经达到了一个看似稳定的状态。我觉得正如预期的那样，平衡近期不会被打破。我希望近几个月内市场行情能够有所突破。

1929年10月初，费西尔用这句话来评价当时的股票市场。史蒂夫故乡房地产状况和我故乡的一样，那里的每个人都坚信房地产只会不断升值，“在这儿，没有人相信房地产会贬值。这正是我担心的一个原因。我的忠实读者都知道，我认为美国的房地产价格是不会暴涨的……可是现在我觉得这一切即将爆发。”于是我也变得十分谨慎。就我所看到的，市场价格异常高涨。我所在地区的很多房地产仅仅在过去2~3年的时间里价格就翻了一翻。而在过去，房地产要达到这个增长率需要12年的时间。我不大确定近期房地产价值是否会持续很长一段时间。如果比以往都长，那就真的很罕见了。而且如果利率开始提高，如果失业率上升，如果全球政局发生突发性的转变，事情就会很快变糟。树不会直冲云霄的。那就是说，我到底在做什么。

我在购买房地产。但是在这个特殊的市场上，正如一句棒球俗语所说的，我“等待我的投球”。我不会盲目的去追赶已在好球部分之外的球，“幻想”可以接到它。

一个拥有资产净值的投资者可以很容易掌握，也很容易想到吉米.罗杰斯所采取的方法。他是收益可观的“Quantum基金”的前任合作经营者（与乔治.索罗斯合作），该机构在20年间每年有31%的综合收益。

罗杰斯曾说过，他的投资方法就是等待机会，找寻适当的投资——一次有价值的投资。他说，他寻找一个几乎可以坐享其成的机会……他只需走过去把钱捡起来。这基本上也是我试着用于我的资产投资中的方法。我可能会列出100个投资项目，然后找出3~4种可行的。之后再专攻某一项，我甚至会做更多的准备，定一个我有把握的价格。这可以提供大量的呈下降趋势的保护以及呈上升趋势的可能性。

幸运的是，即使是在当今这个充满泡沫的市场中，这种方法对我仍然很有效。我所在的弗罗里达州的房地产价格也一路飞涨。利用这种方法，仅两个月的时间我就又添加了三处房地产投资地。

消极的预测，租金下降15%，房价下调两个百分点，我没必要必须卖掉某一处。我想持有多久都可以（我的计划是长期的），即使在最糟的情况下我还可以要求房客门偿还资金。

我还将精力投到高级住宅区，这些住宅区大多是来自其他州或是其他国家的移民，这可以远远满足要求。
现在不同于过去，你必须做一个精明的买主。我听过房地产投资商经常说的话，诸如“在房地产投资中你不能失手。”此类的话。当你有资本失去的时候，就会听到这样的话。

如果现在你的公文包里持有大量房地产投资案，可以借此机会回顾一下每项投资的现金周转情况。分析一下如果气泡破裂，你的租金收入大幅度下降会让你损失惨重的投资有哪些。

仅仅市场价格达到高峰并不意味着房地产投资就无利可图——如果你操作正确的话。

首先当心最后阶段，确定自己是否了解当地市场的冷淡期以及随之而来的利润。

（英文原文）

Will You Be Protected When the Real-Estate Bubble Bursts?

I love investing in real estate. It's a fair amount of work, but I enjoy just about every aspect of it. I've been fortunate enough to realize triple-digit profits on properties several times in under a year -- as the result of leveraged appreciation, net rents, and amortization. On other properties, I expect to get at least 15% to 20% annual compounded returns, doubling my money every four to five years.

     I don't know where else you can get numbers like that without taking on a lot more risk.

     But as an investor in real property today, you have to be especially careful. Prices in many areas have doubled in the last three to five years, though real estate traditionally doubles in value about once every
12 years. That means you may be buying after much of the easy-money appreciation has already occurred in your neighborhood -- and if you get caught up in a bidding frenzy, you could get hurt.

      That's why it's critically important to become an expert in gauging the true value of a property if you're going to be a profitable, but risk-avoiding, real-estate investor.

      But even if you do all the right things, that won't answer the question that a lot of people are asking these days: "Are we in the midst of a real-estate bubble that's about to burst?"

      Some of the best advice I've seen on investment timing comes from Steve Sjuggerud, editor of True Wealth, an excellent investment publication, and an investment panelist for the Oxford Club. In an article he wrote a few weeks ago, he provided a hint as to his current thinking when he quoted Yale economist and investor Irving Fisher:

      "Prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will soon, if ever, be a break from present levels, such as [bears] have predicted. I expect to see the market a good deal higher within a few months."

       Fisher wrote those words, referring to stocks . . . in early October 1929. In Steve's hometown neighborhood, as well as mine, everybody seems to believe that real-estate prices can only rise. He says, "There is nobody here who believes that real-estate prices can fall . . . which is exactly my cause for concern. Longtime readers of mine know that I don't think U.S. real estate is wildly overpriced . . . yet. But I think it's
about to be."

       I too am becoming very cautious. Everywhere I look, the market is getting extremely expensive. Many neighborhoods in my area have doubled in value in just the past two to three years. Traditionally, real estate
doubles in value about every 12 years.

      I'm not so sure the current boom in real-estate prices can last much longer. If it goes more than another year, I'll be surprised. And if interest rates do start to rise, if unemployment skyrockets, or if there's some terrible turn of events in the global political situation, things could go bad quickly. Trees don't grow to the sky.

        That said, what am I doing?

I'm buying real estate. But, in this market especially, I "wait for my pitch," as the baseball saying goes. I don't chase balls that are way out of the strike zone, "hoping" to connect.

        To put it in terms an equity investor can easily grasp, think of the approach Jimmy Rogers took. He's the former co-manager (with George Soros) of the astronomically profitable Quantum Fund, which produced
something like 31% compounded annual returns over about two decades.

        Rogers has said that his approach to investing is to wait and watch for the right investment -- one loaded with value. He looks for a situation, he says, where he practically finds a pile of money just sitting in a corner . . . and all he has to do is walk over and pick it up. This is, basically, the approach I try to use with my property investments.

        I probably see listings on 100 properties before I find three or four that might be worth looking at. Then, when I see one that might be a deal, I do even more homework and make an offer that I'm confident will give me plenty of downside protection and upside potential.

        Fortunately, even in today's frothy market, this has been working for me. And I'm in South Florida, where properties have really skyrocketed. Using this approach, I've been able to add three properties in just in the last two months.

       In a negative-case scenario, rents could drop 15%, housing prices could stall or fall double digits, and I would not be pressured to sell a single property. I could hold them as long as I want (and my preference is
for the very long term) and in the worst case simply have my tenants pay off the property for me.

        I'm also focusing on neighborhoods where there is a great deal of immigration from other parts of the state and country, buoying demand.

        Now, more than ever, you have to be a sharp buyer. Lately, I've heard property investors saying things like "You can't lose in real estate." Those are the words you hear at the times when you can lose the most.

        And what if you're currently holding significant amounts of real estate in your portfolio? This a good time to review the cash flow of each investment and consider unloading any that will hurt you if the bubble bursts and your rental income drops significantly.

        Just because the market may have peaked doesn't mean there's not a ton of money to be made in real estate -- if you do it right.

       Take care of your downside first, make sure you know your local market cold, and the profits will follow from there.

小幽默

办公室规定新说(New Office Work Rules)

生病：任何借口都是没有意义的。我们将不再接受你的医生开的证明，因为我们坚信如果你能够去看医生就可以来上班。

SICKNESS: No excuses will be acceptable. We will no longer acceptyour doctor's statement as proof of illness, as we believe that if youare able to go to the doctor, you are able to come to work.

死亡，除了你：这不是借口。但是，如果你可以安排好在下午稍晚些时候要举行的葬礼事宜，而且倘若你所有的工作都符合要求，我们可以允许你提前结束工作一个小时。

DEATH, OTHER THAN YOUR OWN: This is no excuse. If you can arrangefor funeral services to be heldlate in the afternoon, however, we can let you off an hour early, provided all your work is up to date.

你的死亡：这个借口可以接受，但我们觉得你至少两个星期以前就该通知我们，至少你有责任将你的工作交接给别人。

DEATH, YOUR OWN: This will be accepted as an excuse, but we would like at least two weeks notice, as we feel it is your duty to teach someone else your job.

个人卫生：将太多时间浪费在洗手间里。将来，我们会实行按字母顺序，例如，姓的第一个字母是“A”人允许在9：00——9：05这段时间去洗手间等等。如果你在指定的时间没能上厕所，那么你只好等到第二天，下一次轮到你的时候再去了。

PERSONAL HYGIENE: Entirely too much time is being spent in the washrooms. In the future, you will follow the practice of going in alphabetical order, for instance, those with surnames beginning with "A" will be allowed to go from 9:00-9:05, and so on. If you are unabl to go at your appointed time, it will be necessary to wait until the next day when your time comes around again.

工作量：无论你做多少工作都是不够的。

QUANTITY OF WORK: No matter how much you do, you'll never do enough.

工作质量：可接受的最低限度是完美。

QUALITY OF WORK: The minimum acceptable level is perfection.

老板的忠告：如果早上遇到的第一件事就是吃掉了一只活的蟾蜍，那么一天当中再也没有比这更糟的事了。

ADVICE FROM OWNER: Eat a live toad the first thing in the morning and nothing worse will happen to you the rest of the day.

老板永远是对的。

THE BOSS IS ALWAYS RIGHT.

如果老板错了，请参看第八项。
WHEN THE BOSS IS WRONG, REFER TO RULE 8.

成功小帖士

与失败交朋友

1、要意识到愿意失败是成功的人与普通人之间最大的区别。在麦克斯韦看来，成功与财富，家庭，生活背景，道德意识和机会没有多大关系。他说：“归纳起来，我只知道一种可以将总是成功的人和不成功的人区分
开的因素：他们对失败的理解与反应。”

2、将失败重新定义。麦克斯韦说生活中，人们总是很快的断定孤立的情况并且将之打上失败的印记。一个成功的人把生活中遇到的阻碍视为是暂时性的，并且对自身有帮助的——如果立刻开始的话，还可以从中有所收获。篮球教练理克.比第诺曾经说过，“失败是件好事。它就象肥料，作为教练训练队员是所用的知识都是从失误中吸取的教训。

3、与错误断绝往来。要战胜对失败的恐惧就要与它分开——正如麦克斯韦所说的，要了解“你的一次失败并不会导致你最终的失败。”与其每次失败后都埋怨自己，还不如一这种方式自我安慰，“我不是失败者，只是在这件事上失误罢了。记住，每个成功的人都是失败过却永不妥协的人。伟大的音乐天才莫扎特活着的时候，他创作的“结婚进行曲”曾被斐迪南大公评价为“太吵”而且“太多注释”。历史上最具创造性的发明家托马斯.爱迪生小的时候曾被认为是不可救药的孩子。还有现代最伟大的思想家阿尔伯特.爱因斯坦也曾被慕尼黑学校的老师批评为不会有多大出息的人。

4、行动起来，克服恐惧。要认识到你对失败的恐惧是毫无道理的，只是有过去的失败经验产生的。
要解决一直阻碍你前进的恐惧感，你必须采取行动。“如果你不断采取行动又不断的犯错误，你就获得了经验。”麦克斯韦还说，“这些经验最终使你可以胜任任何的工作，犯的错会越来越少。因此，你的恐惧也会逐渐减少。但打破这个恶性循环的过程需要有行动开始。你必须将行为方式融入思想中，而不是等待积极的情绪带动你前进。”

5、改变你对失败所作出的反应方式。有些人失败了就会生气。有些人回推卸责任，寻找替罪羊。有些顽固的人不吸取失败的教训，仍然重复过去的行为方式。还有些人干脆放弃。麦克斯韦认为，“在失败的高速公路上，解决栅极锁的唯一办法就是苏醒然后寻找出口。”对于他来说，“苏醒”就意味着对导致错误的行为负责。“寻找出口”意味着作出相应的改变。

（英文原文）

making friends with failure

1. Recognize that a willingness to fail is the chief difference between successful people and average people. In Maxwell's opinion, success has little to do with wealth, family, background, morals, or opportunity. "When it comes right down to it," he says, "I know of only one factor that separates those who consistently
shine from those who don't: their perception of and response to failure."

      2. Redefine failure. Maxwell says that people are too quick to judge isolated situations in their lives and label them as failures. A successful person sees a setback as temporary and beneficial -- something to learn from, starting immediately. As basketball coach Rick Pitino once said, "Failure is good. It's fertilizer.Everything I've learned about coaching I've learned from making mistakes."

      3. Disconnect yourself from your mistakes. The trick to overcoming the fear of failure is to disassociate yourself from it -- to understand, as Maxwell says, "that your failure does not make you a failure." Instead of beating yourself up every time you make a mistake, tell yourself, "I am not a failure. I failed at doing this."
Keep in mind that every successful person is someone who failed, yet never regarded himself as a failure. Mozart, one of the greatest musical geniuses who ever lived, was told by Emperor Ferdinand that his opera
The Marriage of Figaro was "far too noisy" and contained "far too many notes." Thomas Edison, the most prolific inventor in history, was considered unteachable as a youngster. And Albert Einstein, the greatest
thinker of modern times, was told by a Munich schoolmaster that he would never amount to much.

      4. Take action to remove fear. Recognize that your fear of failure is based not on logic but on
experience. To get rid of that paralyzing fear, you must take action. "If you can take action and keep making mistakes, you gain experience," Maxwell says. "That experience eventually brings competence, and you make fewer mistakes. As a result of making fewer mistakes, your fear becomes less paralyzing. But the whole cycle-breaking process starts with action. You must act your way into feeling, not wait for positive emotions to
carry you forward."

      5. Change the way you respond to failure. Some people get angry when they fail. Others, unwilling to accept responsibility, look for scapegoats. Some people, stubborn people, ignore the negative results they experience and continue the unsuccessful behavior repeatedly. Still others simply give up. "There's really only one solution to the gridlock on the failure freeway," Maxwell says, "and that's to wake up and find the exit." To Maxwell, "waking up" means accepting responsibility for your actions that contributed to the failure. "Finding the exit" means changing your behavior accordingly.

卷尾语

小的时候，我们总是坚信任何事都能办到。在我们创造的世界里，我们就是主角，一切都在我们的掌握之中。于是，我们的生活充满欢乐，努力想成为了自己所期待的样子。

随着时间的流逝，我们一点点长大。儿时坚信自己可以办到的事情也许还遥遥无期，但是我们仍然朝我们所期望的样子在做着努力。也许有些人并不懂，但是，朋友，你自己明白就好。走自己的成功路，享受自己创造的人生吧！

第16期周刊的故事讲完了，大家喜欢吗？在这里成功俱乐部祝大家中秋快乐，国庆快乐，合家团圆，健康幸福！

[总编：吴丽雯本期编辑：孙若樱翻译：一乔供稿：健飞版面设计：孙若樱]
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